Welcome to the group
The Name Is Not the Deal
Video 2
Let me explain how a deal moves through OWG. Most investment
groups try to do everything in one meeting.
Somebody presents for forty-five minutes. There are fifteen
minutes of questions. Then everybody is supposed to decide whether
they like the deal.
I think that’s ridiculous.
The presenter has spent weeks preparing. They know the deck. They
know which numbers to emphasize. Everybody else is seeing it for
the first time, trying to understand the company, the price, the
access and the structure all at once.
That’s how first impressions, famous names and FOMO take over.
So we separate the process across three calls.
The first call is the presentation.
This is where the situation gets put on the table.
What is the company or asset? Why is this coming to us now? What
is the thesis? What do we know about the price, the seller, the
access and the structure?
We listen. We ask questions. We identify what we understand and
what we don’t.
We are not trying to give the deal a Kiss or a Kill on the first
call.
The purpose of that call is to leave with a better list of
questions than we had when we entered.
Then we have time to work.
We can check the numbers. Look at the market. Examine the
structure. Talk to people who know the industry. Ask the presenter
for documents and answers.
Members who have relevant experience can tell us where the
presentation matches reality—and where it doesn’t.
The second call is the core teardown Working Group call.
Now we put the situation in the hot seat.
We go back through the company, the price, the access and the
structure with the benefit of a week’s work.
What held up? What changed? Which questions were answered?
Which answers created new questions?
This is usually where the real deal begins to emerge. Sometimes it
becomes stronger. Sometimes we discover that what looked like
access wasn’t access, or that the structure is more complicated
than we were originally told.
And sometimes the whole thing falls apart.
That is not a failure. That is exactly what the process is
supposed to uncover.
### The third call is final thoughts.
This is not another presentation.
We lay out what survived the examination, what changed and what
remains unknown.
What is the strongest case for the situation?
What is the strongest reason to walk away?
Nobody is forced into a group answer. Some members may like it.
Some may not. Others may decide they still do not have enough
information.
The purpose is to close the examination with clarity.
Once this process is running, you may see three different
situations on the same Friday call: one being introduced, one in
the Working Group stage and one reaching final thoughts.
One comes in. One is being worked. One reaches the end.
That gives us a continuous pipeline instead of starting from zero
every Friday.
If a situation reaches the end and there is a reason for it to
move forward, the work of OWG stops there. Any transaction process
happens separately.
I’ll explain that boundary in the next video.
A short introduction to the calls, member area and how to participate.
Let me tell you how ww want you to leverage the group. This isn’t a webinar or Netflix.
You’re not here to listen while somebody runs through a deck. You’re here because you bring experience, relationships and a way
of seeing things that the rest of us may not have. You also don’t need to have an opinion on everything.
If you know the industry, speak up. If you’ve seen this structure before, tell us where it worked and where things went wrong.
If you understand the people involved, the market or the operating reality, bring that into the conversation. And if something simply doesn’t make sense, stop us and ask.
Some of the best questions in this group are very basic:
Who owns the shares?
Where did this number come from?
Why is the seller selling?
What happens if the IPO doesn’t happen?
Sometimes everybody else is so far inside the story that nobodyasks the obvious question.
Ask it. And if somebody gives you a ten-minute answer that doesn’t answer the question, ask it again.
As we work through a situation, I want us to keep four things separate:
What do we know?
What have we been told?
What are we assuming?
And what does nobody in the room actually know yet?
Those are not the same thing.
A confident presenter can still be wrong. A beautiful deck can still be half the story. A spreadsheet with twenty tabs can still
be built on one bad assumption. So don’t perform sophistication. Help us unearth what's actuallym going on.
And don’t fall in love with your first position. If new information changes the circumstances, be open to changing your mind. That’s not weakness. That’s the work. At the end of the day, we may have members who like the situation, members who don’t and members who still need more information. That’s fine.
We’re not trying to force function one answer. Otherwise, we’re not a Working Group. Our goal is to sharpen skills needed to make sure everybody understands the company, the price, the access, the structure and what can go wrong. And to master these skills and the confidence to apply them in everything you do.
Video 3